Iraq: The Campaign Promise Obama Must Finagle

Iraq is a problem without a solution, and the blame for the coming foreign relations disaster belongs entirely to President Bush. The only way to avoid the coming bloodshed is to never have invaded Iraq in the fist place.

Even John McCain's prescription of remaining in Iraq 100 years would not avoid an increase in violence. If we could keep a large enough force in Iraq to maintain security for 100 years, the day after we left, the country would erupt into civil war to redress old Sunni-Shiite-Kurd grievances, and the US pullout would be blamed for allowing the violence.

All indications, however, point to a flashpoint long before the mythical hundredth year of a military presence. Iraqi officials negotiating a status of forces agreement to permit continued US Military operations in Iraq after the current UN mandate expires December 31 have insisted on a fixed withdrawal date in 2011 for virtually all US forces.

Should the US ignore Iraq's wishes in this matter, the Iraqi people would soon come to see us exclusively as an occupying force. At that point, we could expect escalating violence as the people rise up to resist the occupation. If this happened, all of our work in the country would have been for not.

Even those who do not agree that a civil war in Iraq is almost inevitable following the withdrawal of US forces, would agree with General David Petraeus, recently appointed as commander of the US Central Command, that the security gains in Iraq are fragile and reversible, which is another way of saying nearly illusory.

Sure violence is down, but there is no security in any real sense. Today's Washington Post carries a story about the bombing Monday of Imad Karim's restaurant. For an unspecified period of time, the restaurant had been protected by US erected concrete blast walls. Recently, as part of a neighborhood normalization process, a gap—an access breach—was made in the walls.

Monday a Volkswagen Passat drove through the gap and parked. Sometime later, at 8 AM, it exploded engulfing a passing minibus in flames. Within minutes to roadside bombs near the Passat exploded and destroyed Karim's restaurant and showered his patrons with shards of glass and hunks of debris. The American officer who inspected the scene suggested more security walls for the area.

The military says that—even through there is a mixing of Sunni residents in the predominantly Shiite community where Karim had his restaurant—the likely culprits are probably from the Sunni extremist group al-Qaeda in Iraq. Since the al-Qaeda group has not claimed responsibility, this is, at best, a guess, and it is a little like blaming the boogeyman. Al-Qaeda is a convenient, easily accepted fall guy, and unless someone else is caught, how are you going to prove they didn't do it?

Add to this the precarious situation of Iraq's police (intended to be Iraq' primary counterinsurgency force). They currently have only 42,000 officers, less than half the needed 100,000, and many units lack radios and other basic equipment. Their job is further complicated by sectarian fears.

Last month, a riot broke out when a primarily Sunni police unit responded to a bombing in a primarily Shiite Neighborhood. Neighborhood residents greeted the police with thrown bricks at them and accused them of sympathizing with the Sunni bombers (the area police commander believes Shiite militiamen planted the bomb by to create precisely this kind of incident). All in all, police throughout Iraq are only too eager for continued US presence and support.

How does Barack Obama, once he is sworn in as president, negotiate this political and foreign policy minefield? It looks very much like a lose-lose situation. Stay or leave, bloodshed is sure to follow.

His best course is to allow the Iraqi government to set the timetable for our withdrawal and follow it closely, only accelerating the withdrawal if the commanders on the ground recommend it. This allows him to share the blame for any increase in violence with the Iraqi Government. They are a duly constituted, sovereign government, and we must accede to their wishes.

This withdrawal process may well take more than the 16 months Obama projected during his campaign, but Obama can remind the American people that he always said he was going to be as careful in withdrawing our troops, as we were careless in sending them in. Following a withdrawal timeline set by the Iraqi government is probably Obama's only graceful way out of a quagmire we should never have entered.