The Coakley Warning

As I write this, voters in a Massachusetts special election are deciding whether the state’s Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley, or Republican (You fill in your favorite adjective here.) state Senator Scott Brown. With true Democratic Party grace Coakley, had the election in the bag (a 30 point lead at the start), tripped on her over confidence and let the damned thing get away from her.  Now most polls give Brown the edge and even most favorable polls put the race at dead even. If Coakley wins it will only be because the Democratic Party in Massachusetts does a superior job in turning out the vote.

Despite Republican Party efforts to frame this as a referendum on the Obama administration, this remains a single state race in which the Democratic candidate’s campaign errors are more than sufficient to explain her loss. [Disappointment with Obama, however, may play a role in the outcome, see my next post “Magical Thinking About Barack the Magic _________________ (Fill in the blank as you see fit.)”]

For all of that, Coakley’s problems in this election should serve as a strong warning to all Democratic Politicians facing elections this year. From all accounts, because of her initial lead, Coakley coasted through the early days of the campaign. Democratic candidates cannot do this. They must campaign aggressively, and they must define the campaign issues and their opponent.

The Republican excel at defining election issues in their terms. Thus, President Obama and congressional Democrats have been pilloried by the Republicans and Tea (Taxed enough already) Party Patri-nuts for raising taxes—which they have not done! They are somehow on the wrong side of a populist movement they should be leading. (This is why taxing Cadillac health plans is unfortunate, but even that can be managed). They can campaign on tax breaks for the working and middle classes, which was part of Obama’s stimulus plan. What voter wants to give that back?

Positive steps to recover bailout funds can also be highlighted along with strong regulatory measures to prevent future financial crises. Framed by the Republicans, President Obama and this congress are widely seen as having few accomplishments, but Democratic congressmen, can point with pride to a wide range of accomplishments, if they will only aggressively embrace and frame them. They can point to the stimulus plan that has saved upwards of two million jobs. Democratic candidates can point out jobs that were saved (often in education or public safety) and highlight any projects in their state or (better yet) district that have been funded by stimulus dollars.

These are but a few issues Democratic candidates can use to frame the election and their opponents. (An exhaustive list of this congress’s accomplishments is outside of the scope of this post.) The major point is that these candidates must seize the populist message, and show how they embrace it in action not merely (as the Republicans do) in words. They must aggressively kick back from labels such as socialist by pointing to populist principals of what they are doing. Don’t let the lies stand.

Perhaps my suggestions are naïve or wrong-headed, but I am certain that the closeness of the Coakley election (whichever way it ultimately goes) should send a strong warning to all Democrats: Run hard from the beginning, give the voters a reason to be enthusiastic about you, and start working to get out the vote from day one. The right-wing voters are motivated; Democratic success will depend on motivating (maybe scaring) Democratic and liberal/progressive leaning voters into going to the polls.