Post Mid-Terms: Does Obama Get It? And What Should He Get?

After the disastrous mid-terms for the Dems, one of the big questions everyone seems to be asking is, “Does Obama get it?” That was essentially the main question asked by reporters at Obama’s first post-election news conference, and the answer seems to very with the perspective of the reporter.

Does Obama understand that he has taken the United States in the wrong direction? The answer seems to be, and should be no! The CBS exit polls show that while 61% of voters feel the country is on the wrong track, there is little agreement on what the right track is. Only 39% think the highest priority for the next Congress should be reducing the budget deficit, 37% think Congress should first use increase spending to create jobs, and 18% think Congress should focus on cutting taxes.

This figures are surprisingly similar to the voters’ positions on the Bush-era tax cuts. Here, 39% want them extended for everyone, 37% want them extended only for the 98% of families earning $250 thousand or less (actually the cuts would cover up to the first $250 thousand of family income for everyone), and 15% who are most serious about reducing the deficit want the cuts to expire for everyone.

Which instructions like these, what direction does Obama turn? Let’s consider two other exit poll findings: 1) 23% of the voters believe that Mr. Obama is more to blame for the current economic problems than former President George W. Bush or Wall Street bankers; 2) About 65% believe the economic stimulus package has hurt the economy or made no difference. Both of these assertions are demonstrably false, but that is the impression the voters have.

Putting aside, for the moment, the effect that a low turnout in the Democratic base had on these figures, the question Obama and the Democrats have to ask is not what they did wrong (they did the right and necessary things), but why good policy did not translate into better voter opinions.

They set expectations too high, (for example they hoped the stimulus would keep unemployment at 8% or less. They should have said it would keep unemployment beneath 11%) and they did not translate their actions into voter expectations. They should have stressed that the bank bailouts were about jobs—keeping people out of breadlines—not preserving the banking system. Similarly they should have talked about nothing but jobs in the stimulus plan and the automotive bailouts. These initiatives did save jobs, but that message got lost.

The 2010 election campaign started for the Republicans on November 3, 2008. They spent two years campaigning against President Obama, and the repetition and consistency of their message persuaded many independent voters because their was no equal pushback by the Democrats. They were busy governing, and expected the American people to understand their policies. That would be like Burger King expecting people to “understand” that their burgers are better than McDonalds.

If there is one thing I hope President Obama gets, it is that no matter how much he dislikes it. He has to start his re-election campaign today. Every other word out of his mouth needs to be jobs. And if he has to fight the GOP to get them to raise the government’s debt limit—which will have to be done within the first six months of 2011—he better frame that fight in terms of jobs.

The other reason the Democrats got shellacked is that many voters who supported Obama in the past, did not vote. The percentage of younger voters fell from 18% in 2008 to 11% this year. The percentage of voters from union households dropped from 21% in 2008 to 17%; and the percentage of African American voters fell from 13% to 10%. Each of these groups favored Democratic House candidates by 15 points or greater.

As part of President Obama’s election campaign he has to use the internet and social media to reach out and re-energize these groups. They may be disappointed in some aspects of Obama’s performance. But if he shows them a measure of attention and concern, he can bring them back for 2012.

Please get it, Mister President! You don’t need to turn to the right to reconnect with the American people, but you do have to focus on communicating your connection at every turn. Please start your campaign today.